Edrard: Why Is Skill MM a Bad Idea

Hello everyone,

today, we’re going to talk about skill MM. Again. I must admit, this topic is not exactly a favourite of mine. But I know someone, who knows a lot about statistics. That’s right, Edrard, the creator of the first efficiency rating – so he really understands this stuff. I asked him on his opinion and here’s what he had to say on the matter (translated from Russian of course). Enjoy!

-SS

Author: Edrard (RU server)

My personal opinion is, that the skill MM is definitely not needed. For one: there are far fewer good players than bad players, in a ratio of somewhere around 1 to 10 and really good players roughly 1 to 100. When it comes to the range from bad up to above average players, the distribution of such players is linear, therefore every time you enter a battle, according to the probability theory, you’ll have basically roughly the same teams. Of course, there is a chance that you will have a team full of bad players and the opponent will have a team full of above average players, but if you take an infinite number of battles, then the amount of such battles will be equal to the kind where you have the above average team and the opponent has noobs. In general, the distribution is always the same. Since the amount of good players is still large enough, the probability of having at least one on your team to be quite high, but let’s have a look at an example.

Let’s say we have 1000 players. Of them, 100 are really bad, 800 are bad up to above average, 90 are good and 10 are unicums. Let’s have a look at the probability of having the entire team consisting of only one of those groups:

- for the bad up to above average: 3.4 percent
- for the really bad players: 3.68e-14 percent
- for the good players: 6.05е-15 percent
- for unicums: 6.52е-32 percent

Based on mathematical expectation, the most probable group you will get is:

1,5 very bad + 12 bad up to above average + 1.35 above average + 0.15 unicum

It turns out that the unicum ends up in something like 1 of 7 battles and so, most of the time, you will play in an absolutely standard team. This is where the platoons come in – they can break the pattern by bringing 3 players of above average skill (or, heaven forbid, unicums) into the battle – that’s why Wargaming decided not to implement any platoons of more than 3 players. Let’s see what is the chance of 3 unicums ending up in one battle randomly:
c(10,3)/c(1000,3) = 0.000072216505082237 %
For good players, it is
c(90,3)/c(1000,3) = 0.07069995847551 %
For really bad players, it is
c(100,3)/c(1000,3) = 0.097311740598314%

But since the platoons don’t always have to consist of 3 unicums, it turns out that if you consider an infinite number of games, you will meet the same amount of good platoons and bad platoons. The most important conclusion however is that when you are platooning with very good players, you constantly, in 100 percent of cases, drop into battles the probability of which to happen is under normal circumstances 0.097311740598314%

Also, if you yourself are a good player, you are knowingly putting yourself in a better position, as your team will always have at least one good player. The same thing goes for bad players. And since some players have higher winrate than others – it’s all on them :)

Mathematically expected team for an above average player:
1.4014014 bad + 11.2112112 bad up to above average + 2.247247246 good + 0.14014014 unicum

Mathematically expected team for a bad player:
2.387387386 bad + 11.2112112 bad up to above average + 1.26126 good + 0.14014014 unicum

Edrard submitted this with a note that unfortunately, he doesn’t have time to explain or answer any questions, but I think the underlying message is clear.

241 thoughts on “Edrard: Why Is Skill MM a Bad Idea

  1. All this mathematics is not needed, the MM should just simply be split into 2 categories:

    49% wr and below
    and
    50%wr and above

    Because at the end of the day, the guys with 49%wr have no positive impact on their battles, so let all them guys play and have “fun” together.

    • Are you serious? I have 48.96 % WR and I’d consider myself good enough to compete with 50%’s and above. OK, to be honest, my last 1000 battles were 51.22%. But for example, there are people with 400 WN8 and 53% WR. They really should go after WN8 or at least PR if they wanted to implement skill MM.

      • This is what I mean, you have 49%wr, I dont and shouldnt have to play with players like you.

        I play thousands of battles to get a Tier 10 tank, and I have to have low bobs with 49% or even 46% wr sitting next to me, its just plain wrong

          • I play to win, which is why my stats increase on a daily/weekly basis.
            Winning is fun, the guys with LESS than 49% wr dont care about winning, they play for “fun” but how isit fun to shoot 1 single shell and then die? AND THEN to repeat that for 20k battles.

            This is a PvP game, thats why it is a great game, These type of players need to be kept AWAY from people that actually want to PLAY the game, sitting in K1 for 20k battles is not playing, botting is not playing, afking is not playing, having no positive impact on a battle is not playing.

            It clearly states in WG terms of use policy, that “actively NOT participating in battle is AGAINST the rules

            • just small note – these “playing for fun” enabled you to get better and better winrate. Or you dont shoot enemy who shoots one shot and gets killed? The probability you get “suicider” in your team is exactly the same as it is in the opponent team.

              That’s funny in all these discussions – every “above average” player thinks that they achieved it solely by themselves which is far from truth – noobs heavily contribute to better players’ winrates – simply because you get wins/xp/credits from their “noobishness” (you pen, he bounces, you angle tank, he exposes whole side etc. = benefit for better player further increasing his WR or whatever.

              • +1
                I’m right with Fido : bad players have their place in the game, they are useful to increase our ER by the many possibilities in general:
                -they are easy targets: they forget to hide from direct shoots or arty shoots
                -They have always the same comportments: campers/rushers/lemmings.
                -They don’t know the game’s mechanisms like camo system
                -They do not exploit the possibilities of maps reliefs and sets
                All those things are predictable with game’s experience.
                The interest in case that you have a bad MM is to pull out your fingers from your a**: if you think that you are a good player, Westy, DO the game be yours!

                Personnaly my WR stagnate, but my ER increase weakly. I try games after games to perfect my gameplay and it have somme reliable effects on my won experience and my benefits…I have no claims to become Unicum but I stain to improve and i continue to play for fun!

                Maybe players like Westy have some problems of ego…

            • If you want hard competition you should play professionally. Not in public games.
              I don’t care if I win or lose. Never used any training, just trial and error. never used xvm, mods etc…I do whatever I want. Shooting gold, buying premium tanks, running fast light tanks across field just for fun. Having blast playing this game. I have disabled ingame chat. I don’t need to read “arm chair” generals comments. Simply, 14,600 games, WR51.57% and don’t GF if my WR goes up or down. I just want to go nuts and drive some tanks and shoot everything I can.
              So, if you are so obsessed with winning you need a hug or something or come out more often from your moms basement.

              • Brilliant could not have put it better
                F Knows what mine is I don’t Give a S
                All I know is I unwind each day with WOT and I love it

                Had over 27k games now and still love it

                Oh and by the way I comd REAL MBT s for 22 years so I do know a thing or two about tank warfare but this is a GAME G>A>M>E

                • Touche! This is a game. As a suggestion though, WG could make something, like giving the players the choice, who reached a certain amount of WR/PR/EFF or what not to turn PRO. The bar would be set high 60%/9500/1800+. The choice would be that of the players if he wants to turn PRO or not, but there would be no turning back. The ones with PRO status could only get into PRO games/7v7/Skirmish/CW/Tournaments, but no random battles. And if the player performs badly and numbers/ratings drop lets say 55%/8000/1500+, he would be automatically kicked from PRO status. He could reenter normal randoms and after he achieves the necessary numbers/ratings again, he could get back to PRO status again.

                  Thoughts?

            • westy, IMO, you’ve got to thanks tomatoes and low bobs to play with you and let you make thoses fabulous games making you a real skilled player
              ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………lol

            • Hi,

              I agree with you, we have 2 sort of players, those who want to play the game and those that want to play an arcade one.

              I even saw a 42k battles players with 41% WR saying he plays for fun and dont care about the game/team.

              Strangely he did a run with an E50 at start of game, tried to kill someone (fired one shot) and then died.
              Why “usual” players should suffer someone like that…

            • Wow. So much fail.
              Saying “every under 49% WR plays for fun and doesn’t care about winning” is about as dumb as saying “every over 49% is a no-lifer, 11yrs old (because so much free time and daddys money), goldspammer and sealclubber”

        • >thousands of battles to get a Tier 10 tank

          I got my first tier X within around 1k battles

          If it took you thousandS battles to get ONE tier X, you either a liar or really bad.

          • Hey, it took me about 20k battles to buy my first Tier 10s – but that’s what happens when

            1) No premium account
            2) No premium tank (except starting from last year, IS-6 & SP now in my garage)
            3) Most important, you research multiple lines at once

            Furthermore, there are very rare circumstances in which I get a Tier 8 tank without a 3-skill crew already trained in the lower tiers

          • 14K battles and only 2 T10s, 2 more on the grind. Why in earth rush to T10, when gameplay is much enjoyable in T6-T8. I do not get it.
            And i do reasonably fair….

      • Ok you all disagree with my suggestion, but rather than 1 line comments, please explain to me WHY that would not work?

        • It was explained hundreds of times already, just go through last week archive , no ones here to entertain a whiny noob. Go read it for yourself.

    • You failed at math, F, sit down. You cant put above/below avarage people together, becasue in a win/lose scenario it will even out and turn avarage again. Basic statistics. You cant have 56% win rate when the opponent has 56% too, otherwise you’d have 113% (1% for draws) possible win rate which is not possible. It has to be in the limits of 99%, so everyone with higher WR than 49,5% will slide down to 49,5 and everyone below will arificially go up. And in the end we got the same bad players against the good ones again.

    • This is the logics of a 5 year old … Sorry westy … you probably have no idea what you’re talking about , as WR has nothing to do with how good of a player you are … even WN8 or EFF isn’t the best, casue fe. for quite a lot of time, I didn’t care about it, so after 3k games , my WN8 is ~900 , when I’m constantly pulling ~1300 WN8 matches on an average day, sometimes around 4k …

      So splitting everything into two pieces would make ppls winrate sooner or later level out around 50% , and everyone will travel around from one part to the other on a daily basis IMO.

      Also, you can’t split hundreds of thousands of ppl into too groups, cause that would cause more harm than good …

      The fact of the matter is, doesn’t matter what kind of “skill weightened MM” devs would make, everyone would have tomatoes, carrots and like that in their teams on a regular basis.

      • We need SOME kind of MM adjustment, the moment you click “BATTLE” its just a lottery of how many tomatoes you will have in your team, even in Tier 10 battles 10 or more can be orange/red low bobs, which will be a certain loss.

        • Play in a platoon, break the mm. Think about the words “Random Battle”. It is _Random_ battle. There are other gamemodes in this game which would certainly use some kind of team/player rating based MM. Some have the best MM there is: eat or be eaten(CW, E-sports leagues). It serves nobody to take the random out of random battles. I too would like to have more competitive games on a regular basis. Casual competitive games. And a chance to play whatever I want in such manner. Team battles are a step into that direction but still there is alot of work on that since its quite restricted and yet without any real MM. If you want to play competitive games I suggest you consider leaving WoT as a casual game and save your gameface for games with PvP and competition as the main purpose. IF you cant find peace in 7v7 or CW

        • Even with MM adjustments, you’d have the same lottery , cause there are faar more bad – below average players compared to good/unicum. Therefore, even if you manage to get a few matches with lemons and above only, you’d still get matches with tomatoes even on tier 10.

          That would cause even more whine and cryfest, cause unicums would cry about why can’t they get every match with lemons as the lowest only …

          However, colors are just colors, I’ve had many matches, where my team was like a tomato soup while the other looked like lemon squash ( yellow and green players ) and we still won.

          Also, the fact that you want to adjust MM according to win rates is baaad from the start.

        • Make the MM form teams with the same (+/- 10%) total sum of their PR’s.
          Even if you have platoon of 3 unicums, the rest of their team will be on average worse than the other team. Rough example – 3 unicums + 10 below average and 2 average vs 2 above average, 7 average and 6 below average.

        • Now, this I agree with.

          Some will say that things even out over the long term. I don’t care. What I care about is that whenever I hit the BATTLE button, the teams are reasonably fairly balanced and that I have a roughly (!) 50/50 chance.

    • Okay, if you wanna post dumb jokes ( Cause that was a joke, right? right? I mean, don’t tell me you thought that would actually work… ), at least do it well. According to your amazing idea, the people with a wr between 49% and 50% would not get to play the game anymore. So yeah, good one. :)

    • What about the difference between un1c0rns who only grind a handful of lines to get their competitive tanks, and casuals like me whose objective is just to try each and every tank in the game ? Spending a large part of your game time grinding tanks and crews (everyone doesn’t gold-out everything from the start) *does* have a notable influence on W/R, that you’re omitting as for most logic related to your beloved “skill MM”…
      Oh and did I mention hardware/connexion issues ? Okay, I’m out.

      • I do the same like you, currently with 22 tier X tanks. But it does not influence my WR, at least not more than 1% – from 59 to 58 currently. Gold/real money/platoons cannot guarantee you ownage in random battles, at least not in this game.

    • I still think 49% is too low of a percentage to say that they don’t help their team.

    • Or easier still: Free premium ammo for all players with a 49% wr. They would have a positive impact on their battles then. Better han a skill MM as everyone can play together, but the noobs would not ruin their unicum teammates games by not contibuting.

    • you are elitist and your comment is stupid.
      the server is too small to segregate it into two groups.
      the good players rely on bad players to populate the game and to get better.
      by cutting off bad players form the good players, you further retard their development.

    • Maybe because i am absolutely not a good player, and prefer to play Arty, but why does people use winrates to decide “skill”? Sure, if you predominantly play tanks you can carry in and do everything yourself, it works. But in things like artillery/light tanks/specialized snipers, where you are still dependent on your teammates no matter how good you are, chances are if the rest don’t want to work with you, you still lose. Does that mean you’re bad because you are consequently losing, but first of your team, or does this mean winrates are just a extremely flawed way of calculating ones skill.

      • No, a more precise evaulation of the players skills, is looking at the tank specific stats and then comapre them with average results. Of course dedicated arty, light, heavy, medium and TD players will have different overall stats.

        Overall WR itself and by the way overall stats are not precise, but we use it for the sake of arguing against skill MM. But yeah tank specific stats for the tanks you currently playing are more important because your stats of all other tanks doesnt matter anything the moment you play a different tank in the game. For me, it has always been about stats the player has on certan tanks, nothing else. Which makes it even harder to balance. Lets say I have decent stats in a IS3, should the MM match the enemy player to also have the same decent stats in his IS3 or in another tier 8 heavy? Would that be fair? Since no tank can have exactly the same stat as another even if they are in the same tire. So there are many things to balance. Lets say I have 53% WR and 61% WR in my most played tank, then using WR as a skill measure I would severe overperform meeting other players that has 53% overall WR unless they also have special tanks they perform very good in. A flawed system.

    • “All this mathematics is not needed, the MM should just simply be split into 2 categories:

      49% wr and below
      and
      50%wr and above

      Because at the end of the day, the guys with 49%wr have no positive impact on their battles, so let all them guys play and have “fun” together.”

      I hate to burst your bubble but if you don’t see the immediate, glaring hole in what you’ve written you need to sit down and have a good hard think about why you failed at maths and why a W/R % MM would fall over within a few weeks, if not days.

    • Hm?
      The point of math is that it DOESN’T look good on paper, but it’s a hard, cold FACT!

      • if you can prove me that 90% of what is in bible actually happened like that than ill believe it that’s the reason why math is right in every cases if its done correctly. or you don’t belive that 1+1 is 2?

        • Come on, ExoNut, I was going to respect you, but bringing this religious stuff into a completely unrelated topic completely made me thinking different again. How sad.

  2. Unicums are crying for skill MM.
    But they don’t realize the fact that with Skill MM they will no longer have 70% WR.

    Why?
    Becouse 70% WR is dues to the fact that in most cases they fight against teams with much lower skillset.
    Actually the WR spread will get lowered drastically as you will always play in balanced teams giving you always 50% probability of win.

    Bad thing for EFFI hunters will be the fact that both sides of the fence will sit in bushes and camp. (typical tactic to boost effi ;) )

    • LOL, The one crying for Skill Base MM is the bad player or average player not unicum. At least on NA forum the only one crying about SBMM is red and yellow…

    • Where are people hearing unicums crying FOR skill based mming? On wotlabs, basically the unicum club, there is unanimous opposition to it.

      Idiots are just making false claims to support their argument.

      Its a mmoot point, Skill based mming will never work. You would either have to divide players into leagues(creating separate small pools for the matchmaker….BAD!) or watch as it self destruct in a short time as it pushes everyone toward a 49% winrate and no longer has anything to work with.

    • I wouldn’t mind winning only 50%, if in return the matches become more interesting.
      Personally, I hate winning 15:0, steamrolles of any kind actually. I want my games to be long and tight. I prefer losing a thrilling game over winning in 3 minutes. It’s boring and there is no challenge whatsoever.
      That’s why I don’t platoon much these days. It’s too easy, you can suck out and still win most of the time.
      But: Skill MM is not guaranteed to stop steamrolles. 3 minute 15:3 games (or the other way) are not necessarilly always the battles with very good or very bad teams. If it helps with this issue I’m all for skill MM though.

      • I agree, but the thing is, you have to extremes. One is what you describe, steamrolls and the game being not challenging at all. But on the other hand, the skill MM MAY cause the other extreme. All battles become passive and boring because nobody would want to make the first move cause they know they would certainly got punished for that. From those two, Id rather have steamrolls with occasional tense game.

        If they would be able to find a middle ground though, thatd be great. :)

      • I won’t say that I “prefer” losing close battles to winning massacres. I prefer to win. But I *enjoy* the close losses more than the massacre wins, if that makes any sense. That may sound odd. I can enjoy the close, long well fought loss, but still prefer winning, even if the winning battle wasn’t really enjoyable.

        It’s like any sport you may play or watch. You may prefer your team to win whenever possible, and yet the close, hard fought game that’s a loss may be a more enjoyable experience than the total massacre of a victory. You’ll probably watch the close, hard fought loss right to the end, whereas in the massacre, you’ll probably just turn the TV off early and go do something else.

        Oh, and I agree that 50/50 SBMM wouldn’t stop massacres, but it probably would make them less frequent.

        • Within a few weeks the game would be exactly the same as everyones W/R averages out to 50%.

    • There is a fine line between player wanting to pad the stat or a player wanting to utterly destroy and humiliate everything that is red. I belong in the latter. The difference is: playing for your own dmg,credits,xp or playing to win. You can be good in both but ultimately winning is harder and requires sacrifices. For this reason I consider winrate and avg dmg/spot dmg ratios as a whole to judge ones “skill”. I dont believe putting skill MM into randoms is the right way to go. What we need is something else to quench the thirst for glory to the people who live from competing.

    • You are the best example of retarded tomato polak.
      No unicum wants skilled mm as they feast on braindead trash like you.
      If unicums camp like your sick brain thinks they wouldnt have WR they have.
      Get you shit together and better kill yourself to make a world a better place.

      • Actually, anyone who suggests that someone kill themselves should be the one getting their act together, or better yet, get banned. Suggesting that people kill themselves is unacceptable in any civilized discussion!!!!

    • You are so wrong on so many levels. That skill MM would actually improve the WR of unicums bcoz the better players they get in their teams, the less they have to carry and risk a death and defeat in the process while doing it.

    • Grzeogorz, if they change the MM model, it will change how one evaluates WR’s. For example, if MM was changed to a model where every battle’s MM was generated to produce roughly 50/50 chance for each team, the result would be that all players would have WR’s close to 50% (if you only counted battles fought under this MM model). And if a person was skilled enough to have a 52% WR, he might be thought of as an excellent player, while a person with perhaps a 48% WR might be a really bad player.

      If MM separated players into brackets (or leagues or whatever) and, let’s say, that only 50%+ players played together (ignoring the issue of numbers of players in queue), all of the sudden, players close to the low end of the skill floor would be the “baddies”, and possibly have bad WR’s within this bracket/league/whatever, depending on how MM matched up the teams.

      The key point is that if the MM model is changed, people can’t look at WR’s under the new model in the same way. And it would take time for things to settle out, enough battles to be fought, etc. before trends developed and new standards could be set for WR’s and who the poor, below average, average, above average, and excellent players are.

      New MM, new standards.

      • This. For skill based MM to work, it would have to base its definition of skill on something other than win rate and right now, win rate is the best overall metric of play.

        Also, suppose my first 20k games had a WR of 45% but my last 2k games had a WR of 65 %. That’s an overall WR of 47% but in play I’d be much better than that stat suggests.

        So I don’t support skill based MM in the strictest sense, but I could support some minor tweaking to rid the game of the worst match ups. For instance, MM would simply be limited to moving ONE player based on skill.

  3. Yes, so I get battles like today: 14 battles in T10 teams with bots E-100, a pair of teamkillers, afk people and an enormous amount of tomato with T10.

    So I decided to switch to T6 just to be the only decent player in a whole red team while in the enemy team there were good players that destroied my team in two minutes and 30.

    Back to T10 and… Surprise! An AMX 50B with 140WN8 and 21k battles that pushed me out of my cover with my 140 to die in the lake of lakeville.

    Then.. ops! A full orange IS-7 that teamkilled 2 arties because they told him not to camp.

    Yes, leave these super players free to ruin people battles because of super mathematic counts.

    I’m not asking something great, I’m just asking for a balance based on the skills, not on the damn tanks, I don’t want a team with 4 E-100 if they are all damn tomatoes dead in the first 2 minutes, just add the possibility to choose between a Random match and a Skill based match so everyone will be happy.

    • Don’t worry about it, just play an infinite number of battles and you’ll be fine.

      • At least I would play with normal people, not with programs or mentally challenged kids.

        Trust me, IF they will introduce it, a lot of players will play it. When you are tired of doing battles with 4-5k damages and you lose because your team is a special team you will go back to garage to select the MM mode.

        Ofc, it will be harder to win but at least you will play with good players against good players, not with bots against players.

        • Unless you are a bad player and you don’t realize it – until it gets announced on forums and then you are put to retards every game.

          Would you pay for it?

          Me neither.

          Therefore big loss of paying customers, bad for WG.

    • The answer is not Skill MM, it never was.
      The ONE AND ONLY answer is to FORCE people to have a certain win ratio, or dmg dealt ratio, or whatever, before being able to buy t9 and t10 tanks, or in other words: you have under 50% win rate or under 800dmg per game? Nope, sorry, can’t have a t9 yet, go back and train till you improve…

      That just MIGHT be a way to get improved gameplay in top tiers, but
      1) it’s wrong to do it, as this is still just a game and even baddies can play if they want to, and
      2) WG would never do it since it would murder their revenues.

      It’s been said millions of times, if you want good teammates, platoon or play team or CW. Random is just that, random, a filthy pool you jump into willingly, and you’re the only one to blame if you didn’t bring your high boots or hazmat suit.

      • Random games in wot are not for people who are easily offended and get angry easy. Random games are the gutters of ghettos, where all freaks, racists, mentaly and physical ill people, pedophiles, homos, noobs, bullied and bullies and elitsts gather. There is such a ahigh amount of shit people that you cant have too high hopes in randoms. You need to accept it, random games represent the random society we all live in.

  4. What most people want is an end to the matches where all six purples in the match end up on the same side. It’s not skilled based MM that’s needed, it’s skill balanced MM.

    • Agreed. I don’t care what skill level of players i’m playing together with, as long as the enemy teams players at least at similar levels. But honestly… the MM still fails even at simple things like mirroring the teams by tier. ( It always fun having 2 tier 10 tanks in the team while the enemy has 4 of them… and no, i don’t talk about the cases when the enemy has more of the tier 8s too, so it gets kind of balanced out. I’m talking about the battles where the rest is all t9 on both sides, for example. )

      • That’s not common for me at all. I usually get balanced matches.

        Try deleting mods. It might fix the bug. :)

        ……I’m joking, for the unobservant.

      • Or the enemy has 4 tier 10 tanks and you get 3 tier 10 tanks and 2 of them are arty… on a (mostly) citymap.

        ( Then the enemy has 5 tier 9′s and you have 4 tier 9′s and their tier 7′s have their only arty… )

    • This. I don’t care much for a league with only good or only bad players, but rather one where there an is equal amount of game-carriers and freeloaders on each team, especially a way to balance platoons against similarely strong ones.

    • Yes! You totally nailed it. This is what this game needs. Its not Skill based matchmaking or leagues or stuff like that that. It needs like you said skill balanced matchmaking. WG have all the metrics at their disposal: win rate, personal rating, efficiency, WN8 etc. So why don’t use those the same way they use vehicle weight? If they just add up the personal ratings for team one and get 75k and then for the other team and they get 35k there must be something wrong right?
      The good players should not be split from bad players. Instead each team should get an equal number of good and bad players so both team have an equal chance to win. In this case you can still get unbalanced matches like: team one has all the good players in bottom tier vehicles and team two has the good players in top tier vehicles. Fine then multiply the vehicle weight by the personal rating and you get a combined evaluation of the strength of a player depending on his vehicle and his skill level. So …
      1.Do this for all 30 players in a match.
      2. Check if both teams have matching player strengths to a certain threshold.
      3.??
      4.Profit.
      I still do not understand why WG fails at such a simple task. Sure they would say all these calculations will increase the load on the servers and the waiting time for a match will increase. I personally don’t care… I would rather wait 1-2 minutes to be placed in a balanced match, than be placed in a horrible match in under 30 seconds and then suffer for the next 5-15 minutes.

      • What’s wrong with current state?

        75k vs 35k of whatever rating for 15 players is extreme in statistic. Most battles are close. People tend to find and remember this extremes as excuse for their loses – like paper vs armored heavies, pre-school-kids top tier platoons, TDs vs meds. And tomato-stomping battles are more determined by team distribution than skill (1450wn players are not much better than 1200wn yellow, they are just more consistent and their contribution is more about not suiciding – and passive game is not the best for victory – they are not spotting for anyone, using others as meatshield and that’s all. From cca 1600wn players starts to contribute much more and more consistently, because it requires more active gameplay).

        1) Balancing teams means just balanced battes. 49-50% win rate for everyone.
        2) Balancing teams while mixing good and bad players in the same team means that unicums will always have tomatos, kids and bots to feed on.
        3) Balancing teams and putting players of same skill together – all players will have similar damage per battle, similar win rate. Because teams are random, there won’t be any competition unlike in sport teams. You won’t even recognize if you are getting worse or better.

    • I don’t. I want to fight the unicum, but I might also want to cooperate with them (and not always be in an opposing team when there’s only one, as a weight). I don’t even care if there’s fifteen unicums against me. It’s a challenge, not a lost battle.

      This is mostly about players giving up before the battle happens – one of the worst things you can actually do in a battle.

    • I agree that the battles with six purples on one team are unbalanced and lead to poor game play experience for both teams. The purples hate it because they don’t get to do a lot of damage to maintain their stats. The players on the other team hate it because its usually a guaranteed loss.

      One thing that many topics of skill based matchmaking skip over is getting rid of the landslide/steamroll battles and the battle with predetermined outcomes due to very large skill differences.

      In an analysis of over 2,000 solo pub battles, this is what i found:

      Players lose less than 3% of the battles with a greater than 60% XVM chance to win.
      Players win less than 3% of the battles with a less than 40% XVM chance to win.
      The battles outside of the 40-60% chance to win range account for about 30% of the average player’s battles.
      So basically 30% of the average player’s battles have a predetermined result due to the difference in skill between the teams.

      If we could get rid of the battles outside of the XVM 40-60% chance to win range the game play would be more dependent on layer skill and teamwork. Yet it wouldn’t force everyone to have the same win rate.

    • It is a matter of definitions when one talks about “skill based MM”. There are probably numerous ways of implementing something that could be called “skill based MM”.

      Personally, what I want is to know that every time I hit the battle button, MM will generate a battle where there’s a *roughly* 50/50 chance of winning for each team. That would be an improvement.

      • You mean you want rigged matchmaking, designed to get everyone to 50%?

        Funny how so many people believe that is already there and whine about it.

        • If you have played over 10k games or similar and play effective the majority of times you will realise that both good and bad games are happening. And some times yes there can be extreme periods of winning, but also of loosing. Not sure why though.

          But the point is, if you strive to become better majority of your stats (not only WR) will improve. Sadly its not in the humans nature to strive to become better, they are satisfied with the current mediocre state and like to complain and blame everybody.

          Here in sweden we often say “blame the society” and it is similar in wot, many players say blame the MM, blame the game, blame the “nob tim”. Same shit every day at different palces. WOT community is a reflection of the overall society.

  5. I don’t see anything wrong with it.
    In fact, it sounds great!
    Seeing less gold spamming rerolls is always a good thing.
    BRING THE SKILL MM!

        • About 1/3rd of the Purples I’ve encountered shot gold almost exclusively and I drive mostly MEDIUMS which can be penetrated by standard rounds.

          Got to love the AMX 13 90 who managed to bounce his whole clip off a T-44. ( tracks eat HEAT, angle on front plate was autobounce for HEAT ( but not normal shells ) I was the last tank alive, it became a draw because I ran out of shells against… Jagd E100 :< ( He was full life, I didn’t even bother attacking him )

      • I know but if you look closely on my initial comment, you’ll see the word “spamming”. Nobody beside the rerolls, who are in love with their stats, spamms so much gold. This is removing the fun of the game, as you can not do something risky, because you know they will pen, every time. (I know that gold can bounce sometimes, in case you want to correct me on this as well. By saying “every time”, I’m using a hyperbole / exaggration, to show the difference in hit/penetration ratio between standard+sometimes gold and full gold is big IMO.) And with risky I mean, for example rushing. Rushing an enemy makes your weakpoints harder to hit. In close fight while circling or brawling, you can try o give the enemy the strongest parts of your armor. In the moment he switches to gold, it all makes no sense anymore, so you have to camp / sidescrape or fight hull down against him. Effectivelly such gold spamming guy, excludes some of the techniques you could use on him. That makes the game waaaay less interessting and dynamic, so if I get to see less of them, I’m very happy.
        BRING THE SKILL MM!

        • Gold ammo spam is not an MM issue, its a situation created to make WG increase their income (since you need prem account to spam gold). But I agree that gold usage is a big problem, and skill MM wont solve this because any noob can buy prem account, play prem tanks and afford spamming gold. In fact I think there are as many noobs as unicums using gold, because the majority of the players that exist are not unicums.

          So I think its is safe to say that more average to below average players use gold, than unicums if we speak about the total amount.

          And since skill MM will boost stats of players having below average WR and stats, its safe to say they will earn more xp and credits, allowing them to use even more gold ammo than now.

          Use gold or not is a question of dignity and balance. I have 61 mil credits I can use gold ammo all I want and I have 350 days prem account. But I dont because I feel my stats would get inflated and also cause huge balance errors in the game.

  6. If this skill MM would ever come (and i dont want such a thing) I hope that they just make it so to only balance the top 3 players on each team, that way you dont impact the game to much, yet you take away the whine ”I lost cause our top tier’s where noob!!!!111”

    • Can’t be done, there just aren’t enough top players to go round. Unless you guarantee everyone over a certain level to always be top tier. Yeah, that sounds fair. Not.

  7. Would like to see a PRO- Match Maker opinion now from another expert for the sake of fairness to the topic. Another expert who can use math to show why it is better please.

  8. Finnaly someone proved this, I don’t get why people complain about the MM. There is not a single chance over a good amount of battles that you will always get the bad team.

    The chances are even. That is why the overall WR of the servers is arround 50% cause it can’t be otherwise. One team wins another one losses.

    Whoever cries about his “noob” team should know better and act better, by carrying them. If you call them idiots and noobs, then you should be superior class to them and manage peform in a way to win even the games with low %, but most of these clowns just bite the dust like everyone else. You don’t have the right to complain about your team no matter how good you are, cause if you fail to carry, you are not different from the 48% noob that died for no reason.

    • Why is it so hard for some to understand that a lot of people don’t CARE about what happens over the long term??? I/We care about what happens in the short term! I/we would like to know that whenever I/we hit the battle button, MM will generate battles where each team has a roughly 50/50 chance of winning.

      Some will say that in MM 30% of your battles are certain losses, 30% are certain wins, and it’s the remaining 40% where your efforts matter. That’s just screwed up in my book. How about having an MM model where 100% of the battles are fair enough that you and your teams’ efforts matter?

      • Long term effects are very important in a game like WOT that has no “end game”, such games cant screw up out of economic reasons.

        But believe it or not, all efforts does matter in the team. Even if you have bad games, but generaly is a good player, that will show up in the stats. You dont have to win all games to become above average in stats and specialy WR. Play good and in the long term you will have either 50 or above 50% WR, as well as all other stats of the tank.

        If you play like 5-10k games and havent progressed you cant really blame the MM for “noob tims”. It doesnt work like that all players in wot has the same fair share of rng and good/bad luck. Its just in the human nature to be mediocre, look in the schools. Only a small percentage of the students has good grades in all courses. The most are mediocre and hence the different limits of grades are set accordingly by the school system. How many of the school students become top lawyers, doctors or business owners? 80% will end up working for the 20%, and this is the same in games.

  9. I used to pray about Skill based MM before. Then I realized that the better I get at this game, the more 20%-45% games I’m able to “carry” and walk away with juicy medals out of them. You can hardly even get a Top Gun in a 49%+ matches. Yeah, Steel Wall, Tank Sniper and High Caliber are a posibility, but does anyone even cares about these medals any more ? You ever had one of these 50%er Tier 10 games, when you win 15-10 and every single tank on your team did around 2k-3k damage ? Including the OP as fuck WTF E-100s and Bat Chats, who are supposed to deal 3k+ at least to even save face. That shit ain’t fun. If I wanna do that – there’s always Clan Wars and Tier 10 StronkHolds. But guess what ? No shiny medals in there.
    I’m long past interested in my own stats. They are decent. I like them. They are mine. Not the best, not the worst. Nuff said. I do like those hard intense carry games thou. Those special medals and shit.
    Besides, all the formulas that are supposed to evaluate your skill accurately, seems flawed. Just buy yourself an E-50, tie a string of 20 games with 3k dmg each in a row, and in a couple of days you’d be purple. And with 0.3 accuracy, that shit ain’t hard.

      • That is why looking at tank specific stats are more important than overall stats. Or more precise the stats of the tanks that the player is playing actively.

        I always look at tank specific stats of players, and hence a 65% WR player having mediocre stats in a tank he used against me is more important. It is important because it shows he is weak in that particular tank and hence dont have any advantage over me. And because of that he should stfu because he is weaker than me (in that tank and in that specific scenario). :).

        So in a way player skill is dynamic because not all players master all tanks as good. And this also contrubutes to the random MM situation we have. I certanly dont master all tank good, that is why I play few tanks at a time so I can become good at them. And hence my overall stats might not be entirely accurate.

  10. “Based on mathematical expectation, the most probable group you will get is:

    1,5 very bad + 12 bad up to above average + 1.35 above average + 0.15 unicum”

    Mathematically sure. The problem is this is the expectation or the average battle. In practice although the theme is the same, there are deviations from team-to-team. For example, skill match making that I would like to see is:

    1,5 very bad + 12 bad up to above average + 1.35 above average + 0.15 unicum
    (Allowing for +- 5%/10% deviation from the above in each category)
    vs
    1,5 very bad + 12 bad up to above average + 1.35 above average + 0.15 unicum
    (Allowing for +- 5%/10% deviation from the above in each category)

    Right now there is nothing keeping the match maker in check to stop it from curve-balling too far away from this average. Often the case is one team gets more above-average players while the other gets more below average players. In extreme cases one team gets loaded full of blues and unicums and it’s a 15>1 after 3 minutes. This shouldn’t be happening.

    • Exactly. The problem is, one small mention of ‘skill MM’ and everybody loses their minds! That’s why I prefer ‘matched teams’. MM already matches teams (by definition), but only for battle tier and vehicle type. They just need to add skill component and MM would be complete.

      • and whats the difference to skill-mm? Same shit other name doesnt make it any better…

        • Wrong. You just reshuffle players within the already selected teams.
          No additional wating. Simple.

      • So, how will you measure skill?

        Can’t use win rate because soon everyone will have 49%, WN8 is flawed due to lack of public data. WGs PR is more about battles played than skill.

        • Skill? I judge skills by looking at tank stats and good players will more likely have good stats on all actively played tanks. Like avr dmg, avr xp, avr kills, spotting, k/d ratio, survival, hit ratio, max xp obtained, max dmg done, highest kills done, assistant dmg, and WR.

          But if the player is in a well known clan I dont take the stats too serious because I know he have gotten help to get those stats or I assume it. Also I assume the usage of gold ammo.

  11. We want a skill based Match Maker, we are tired of the huge Avalanche losses, and unequal player skill disparity, and high % players who game the system to keep inflated win rates, and kill the game for everyone else.

    • Inflated? Sure there are some inflated stats, but there are some players who play fair and have worked hard to reach 55-60% solo. Why should these be punished by skill MM? Its the majority of the players making a minority have above 50% because the majority of players in all online games are not really good. It is a natural effect.

      How exactly does better players kill the game for everybody else? If all you noobs would face eachother you all would have 50% WR in the end, and while that would certanly be a boost to your current stats you have artificaly got your stats boosted by a MM, not by playing better.

      In battlefield 3 and 4 it was unfair becasue there you could have several people knowing eachother all making squads and join the same side on the server (team stacking) and communicating and outplaying a whole team. This is not possible in wot becauce you can be 3 people in a platoon maximum and even then there are no guarantees you will win. In battlefied there was a limited amount of vehicles, in WOT there isnt. So actually battlefield 3 and 4 is alot worse in terms of statspadding than WOT ever will be because in battlefield you could choose servers and stomp and explot them in a unfair way. In WOT you cant do that, not even close.

      In battlefield 3/4, half the team could be divided in several squads all communicating on TS and destroy the enemy team, specialy on servers that had no admin and were “noob/beginner servers”. And some times even the admin allowed that behavior and engaged in it. So there are alot worse scenarios.

  12. they should only balance the tanks in game better..not have 10 td’s in one battle..and this skill mm would be boring as fuck after a while..i dont like to have 46-48% player but u never now what might hapen in battle and that is the charm of game..cuz imagine u have battles like u see on esl..where both (good) teams measure each other for 10 min and wait for other team to do something..just boring..this way if u are good u are going to kill these noobs and have good game..and sometimes u are goona lose because of them..that is life-game

    • Most players want skill MM and most players (80% have 48-52% WR) are baed :). So yeah it doesnt suprise me if most players really want skill MM because they are not really good and certanly not way above average. Skill MM will buff weak players stats in the long run.

  13. LOL you will never get it through there thick arrogant skulls that if they split the game for the 50% plus players half of them will instantly become sub average in that cohort of players. The overall effect will be that every ones win rate will be depressed because of the increased competition for hp and those at the bottom will have their win rate drop to below 50% and thus fall out of the cohort. The sub 50% cohort will have their average win rate rise because those at the top of the cohort will have less competition for hp and will die a lot less and the topmost players will find their win rates climb to well over 50%.
    Eventually the system will settle down to some sort of steady state but the over 50% cohort will find it more difficult to have the win rate they once enjoyed because of the increased competition for hp.

    So if your win rate is so important and you are in the 50-55% region WTF would you want to have skill MM.

  14. tbh I would be okay with a skill mm of a different type… might put some strain on the matchmaker but I love to see teams of a similar number of good and bad players.. meaning if one side has a platoon of 3unicums it should get another 2 solo unicums if the opposing team is made of red and yellows… thats what i imagine when it comes to skill mm.. not team full of blues facing another team of blues

    • Would you be happy to wait 20 minutes for a game. Unless there was some sort of pre booking system where you said what tanks you wanted to play over the next hour or so.

      • But whatever way you do it skill MM will bring down the win rates of those who hold it most dear and frustrated players are less likely to play the game and pay for goodies which in turn will slow development making for more frustrated and bored players etc………………game over please uninstall.

    • Yea, but based on Edrard’s maths up in the topic, it’s easy as f*ck to understand, how long unicums and black terribads would have to wait in the queue to get a worthy opponent in the opposing team. I have no interest in that, as even now waiting in the queue can be way to long..

  15. I entirely agree with the logic presented by Edrard. It is precisely why matched teams would have very little or no influence on WR for anyone, and ‘strong skill MM’ (all players in a match have similar skill) would be both unworkable and unenjoyable.

    However, the *sole purpose* of matched teams is to reduce the ‘unlikely’ but still common experience of one team being stacked (to some degree) with goods/bads and the other team not. It’s about making the experience more consistent, that’s it. Having a solid match every time, not being spoon fed wins due to luck.

    I’m pretty sure more than 1/3 of matches are guaranteed wins at the moment, there is a long way to go before people who ‘don’t care’ lose all their free wins.

    • To correct myself, you would still be given free wins at more-or-less the same rate as now. It would be due to probabilities of gameplay rather than probabilities of interteam balance.

    • Nothing is a “guaranteed win” – unless the whole team suicides or AFKs, of course.

      This is where people are very wrong. Even 5% (hate winchance, but to get point across) battle is winnable, sometimes even easily. Humans are unpredictable as hell and that number means nothing.

      • Its the randomness of players making games turning the tide in WOT and this is possible by having players of totaly random skill and RNG. The key is to try performing consistent and hence you will benefit. But force all players to meet equal ones and have the same amounf of bad and good players is not a good idea, it will become mediocre to constantly meet the same amount of good players and retards. I dont even use XVM so I dont care or judge players unless I see how they play and yes some times I even flame on unicums and superunicums, but who cares its random and that is why we love the absurdness of it.

  16. so why about skill based MM for platoons? few days ago met blue 3 guys in standard red battle. guess what happened…

    yes there are not many of them. but they tend to win most of the time…

  17. … Or they can just scratch the concept of skill MM and change the MM weight of vehicles to correspond with the “eliteness” of the tank being driven. Stock tank vs. elite tank can really make a difference. I am tired of people typing “Wow, E75 you noob, Y U dont have top gun!?” all the time and other such BS.

  18. MechWarrior Online has similar gameplay to WoT, but it has MM which takes player’s ELO rating into account when composing teams. Despite that, I don’t really see a difference between MWO and WoT. Battles, where one team barely manages to get 1-2 kills, while opposing team ROFLSTOMPs them happen as often there, as they do in WoT. So, why bother with skill based MM?

  19. The problem is that nobody is playing an infinite number of games. What is more, you do not want to have a bunch of really bad games to be balanced out by yet another bunch of equally bad games. In the end, I would imagine most people would prefer fair games. Games between roughly equal teams are far more interesting. Right now, I would say the vast majority of the games I play, are seriously imbalanced.

  20. As a first step, creating skill balanced MM would be enough. If the MM already has all the tanks selected for a battle, why not looking at the skill level as well? I mean, 3 tomatoes to one team, also 3 to the other, 3 orange to one, 3 to the other, etc. (Ofc, already the selection has to be made taking skill into account.)
    Yes, this could result in 50-50% winchance battles, but there is the deviation in tanks to give variation. The battles would be more interesting, I’m pretty sure of this.

    And: how hard would it be, based on the above, to create a pseudo-league system. By that I mean, based on WN8 categories, red-orange-yellow play together, orange-yellow-green play together, yellow-green-blue play together, green-blue-purple play together.
    The challenge is still there, improvement is possible, skills are closer, more levelled chances and more interesting battles. How does that sound?

    I think the combination of these 2 above would result in a much better gamplay and fair matches.

      • Sorry, but you have spewn this BS all over this thread.
        NO – when you shuffle players between the already selected teams no additional waiting occurs.

  21. Here’s my idea for Skill MM:

    Another button for ranked battles and separate queue.

    10 placement games. If you deal your tank HP in damage, you get +10 points. Else, you get -10.

    for balance purpsose, IF the tank is:
    - light tank, you have to spot your tank HP in value.
    - heavy, td’s or med: beforementioned rule applies
    - arty: 2x of arty’s hp need to be dealt to add 10 points.

    This way, everyone wins: suiciding tomatoes go down, average players stay average and good players bump their rating.

  22. I would like to see how a skill based MM would balance out a 3 man super unicum platoon :). Giving them 12 bots and the enemy team full of blues and greens? :>

    Such platoon could enter the queue in the morning, leave to work and come back home finally getting a match.

    The MM would have to improvise 90% of the time and the good players would anyway end in improvised game setups that would be same as now.

    • See my second point a few posts above yours. I think thet kind of pseudo-league would solve this as well.

  23. I think they should implement skill mm for sure, maybe just based on player performance by efficiency rating rather than win rate. I only have like 5k games and my win rate is shitty 48% but my wn8 has been 1300 the past 1000 battles and over 1200 the last 3000. my damage ratio and kd ratio are all above 1 so I should be more like 50% but thanks to the actual shit players my win rate sucks so everyone just judges me and its annoying so yes to skill mm just not by win rate

    • You are so fucking wrong dude. Im not saying that making more kills and damage will increase you overall WR. Im saying that if you play better in the long run and make more damage, spotting, kills and assistance damage then you will probably get slightly better WR because you have become better than the average.

      I can take an example, when I started playing my tiger II I had 60% a while then my WR got decreased to even 53-54% in that tank and slowly I have worked my way up to 58% WR and during that time my avr dmg and xp has increased alot because I play better and have found out new ways to deal with problems, for example I have learned what works and what does not work. Really there are always thing to improve in wot, thing you didnt thought about before. And all this matters believe it or not.

      So no, you cant blame your “shit tim” because you have 48% WR, you need to play better and take advantage of other weak players to become a 50% er or above 50%.

      I can understand why skil MM would benefit you, because you would meet more players that are as bad as you and hence you both would get 50% WR after some while, without becoming better.

      For those who have above 50% their WR would decrease to 50% after a while because they would also meet more equal players. Also a nerf to those players who perform above average and a buff to those who perform below average.

  24. They just have to make the MM to adjust teams according to player’s ratings not by win rate. I’ve recently had an experience driving e50-m with 46% win rate(which is shit) and 3k avg damage per battle (which in my opinion is decent).

    Also to note that Edrard forgot to mention that you could get unicum on your team which plays a tier 5 LT and might not influence the game as a tier 9 unicum playing e-75.

    So it’s not all black and white like he’s trying to say it is be throwing few percents in our faces.

    MM needs to account skill level of players. I don’t mind having 6-7 bad players on my team as long the other team has 6-7 equally bad players (or equally good).

    • 46% WR and 3k avr dmg, at how many games? I personly dont take average WR and dmg serious unless you have 300-500 games in a particular tank because then one can exclude additional bad and good games and additional luck and RNG.

      • It was around 300 games when i had those kind of stats.. now it is 450 games 2500dmg and 49% lol

        • The problem by having the equal amount of players on both sides and hence have closer to 50/50% win chance every game is it becomes mediocre. Having both teams of totaly random players is more intresting because you never know what might happen, and this allows noobs team with maybe one good player beat another team with 2 good players and the rest noobs. These epic games that are happening now and then would not be possible with such strict MM that would always have 50% win chance for both sides.

          In other words with the current MM, in the long run if you are a good player you will benefit because you will meet more bad players than good because the majority of the playerbase are bad. If skill MM will come now all good players ALWAYS will meet some good ones, which certanly dont have to be the case now where it is possible that you can be the only blue-purple player in the team and the rest of the players on both your team and in the enemy team are reds, yellow and green. And this is because there are alot few blue and purple ones and chances to meet these in this current MM is not extremely big. Skill MM will force all blue and purple ones to meet other blue and purple ones and here is the differance, this current MM dont force any player to meet equal ones.

  25. Please no skill MM I want to kill some noobs, some bots, and some slow thinking players!!!!

  26. MM has 4 platoons to deal with. 2 toons of unica and 2 of tomatoes. It stacks together the toons of unica in one team and the baddies on the other team. It always does that.
    Just like WoT bends the laws of physics and gravity, MM spits on probability.

  27. perfect showcase that skill MM was completely misunderstood, cause what we want is not skill MM but skill balanced MM
    5 retards
    5 half retards
    5 quasi tards

    not 15 retards against 15 retards

    • That would still end up as a 50/50% match and hence all players WR would level out in the long run, because everybody would constantly meet the same amount of equal, average and below average players. It would be mediocre to meet the same amount of “gene” pool people all time.

  28. Don’t make a skill based MM, just balance the teams based on skill … that’s all you need to do …

  29. I have had a lot of players from Major Clans here on the NA even discuss with me that were unhappy with the current Match Making system. For numerous reasons. They told me they felt the Skills were not balanced even close in some of the matches, and it bothered them even clubbing low skill players, when they wanted more skilled players to play against.

  30. This is what we need. Not Skill MM but a MM that After choosing match tiers, calculates average of winrate, efficiency or whatever metric is deemed best by WG. Noobs isn’t the problem, its the number of unicums being grouped together versus tomatos. If unicums were split somewhat evenly give or take 1 or 2 then it’d not only be fair but more of a skill based game. We don’t need ladders, we don’t need team battles we just need a better system of sorting teams. Your gonna have full on blow outs either way but this makes it more consistent in terms of skills. Unicums will remain unicums but now stand on more level ground.

    Edit: Didn’t read every post but saying this specifically to ensure its said. I’m sure someone will bring it up or already did.

  31. Wow, bunch of retards trying to boil a persons performance down to one single variable.

    Multi-player games have existed for far longer than any sort of video game. As far as creating skill MM goes, it would be way to complicated to get right, and since they don’t use it in any actual multi-player sports, it’s presence would be extremely questionable.

    I found a good article that explains it from the perspective of football, it’s not the same game, but it should give you a much better idea of what “performance analysis” actually is (yes, it has a fancy name.) I’ll add here as well, for the benefit of all you “win-rate is everything” whiners, that this will make you all look like utter fools, as will any other similar article regarding this subject.

    http://www.footballscience.net/special-topics/performance-analysis/

    Here’s another article I found that shows how to calculate a players performance (in general, he uses several sports as examples, not just one), and his formula does NOT use winrate as part of the performance calculations shown. Also, I have not been able to find that word in any article related to any actual real world multi-player game. Which makes you wonder if it’s really even relevant. I mean, if it was really as big a deal as some people would try to have you believe, don’t you think all the football nerds out there would have been using it for decades before computer technology even reached the level necessary to support multi-player games?

    http://wagesofwins.com/2006/05/21/simple-models-of-player-performance/

    I’m sure some of you may think that the comparison here is invalid since WoT is a game and these are “sports.” You’re all stupid, they are games, and they pit teams of players against each other just like WoT does. The only real differences are that the teams aren’t random, and a physical presence is required.

  32. I reject these stats on the simple fact that no one has the time to play an infinite number of games to see this balance out.

    Personally, my feelings towards the game typically are the result of the last 20 to 100 games. I suspect that this is the case for most people and if wargaming wants to keep decent (money spending) players engaged they need to do something about the lopsided games.

    I do NOT think the skill based MM that has been proposed is the answer. However, I do think a quick and simple swap algorithm could be run after MM has picked the players/tanks to swap similar weighted MM tanks from Team 1 to Team 2 to even out player ability. This does not require segregating the player base based on stats. The UNIs will still carry but you should see far fewer 15-0, 15-1, or 15-2 games.

  33. Wrong, actual MM only benefits higher skilled players increasing their numbers and ego, they have no balanced MM so around 8 of 10 battles are vs. less skilled players, platoons make this numbers even worst, so you can see guys over 60%+ WR mostly because they dont have balanced battles who limits that.

    In other hand, medium players, have to deal with so unbalanced battles, some of them autowin or autolose, depending only on MM, and low skilled players have most of the battles completely unbalanced.

    WG gives us excuses that players will dont like to wait a bit more to join a battle, i will be okay if i have to wait 30s~1min to have a well balanced battles, instead to lose 15min sometimes in a full MM bullshit teams for example reds vs purples.

    • Watch unicum streams of solo players they get their fair share of shit games as well. But because they are better than the majority of the playerbase they will also have a higher WR in the long run. What is wrong with that? Nobody is preventing an average to become above average and it is possible thanks to the current MM. If a average cant become above average its not MMs fault, its because he simply dont handle the game.

  34. SS, again: reballancer, which will alter this probabilities after battle is assembled. You can ask Edrard about my proposal ;) .

  35. I don’t want to wait for 5 minutes to get a battle. (If I did I would play wowp more) So my skill based MM proposal. (May be similar to nixxxie) is keep it the same as it is now and shuffle the teams that were originally selected to get them as close as possible to 50 percent chance to win. I would use percent win chance in the tank the person is driving. If less than 25 battle use the persons’ overall W/L record.

  36. People like this Edrard are so called THEORY COCKS. They just whine about what to do and what not to do using mathematical formulas and similar bullshit that have nothing to do with real thing. I wish these Edrard-like faggots to play about 100 battles per day like me and then prove using formulas why EVERY FUCKING BATTLE is own team full of useless reddish trash with win chance under 40% while enemy team is full of mutually-cocksucking purple statfappers (in platoon).

    • It seem you find it enjoyable since you play as you say.. 100 battles a day. So why the whine?

    • Whats your WR? If its below 50% then xvm takes that into consideration and show lower chance of winning. How the fuck do tomatos expect to get above 50% win chance when themselves have 45% WR :S. I can understand why toamtos want skill MM, get instant 50% and more xp and credits automatic.

  37. Hello. First about me – you need to know who puts this words that i will say.

    I am a player (different nick in WOT from here) with over 6200 battles and 52,95% overall win rate (statistics for today this moment) (in tiers 9 and 10 this “tier win rate” is … worse to be honest …). I am for now “max tier 8 player”. I can be nice in tier 8 tank (sometimes being top tier when …) but tier 9 and 10 is still too high for me. I still learn tier 9 and 10 level of game play (for example more hp in enemy tanks in general and better guns and worse enemy artillery).

    I must say that this topic is, for me personally, less and less important when time goes. Why ? Because i understand finally that this is just online game with random matchmaker. I could be sure of maximum 2 players in my team (platoon of 3). And i am better and better accepting that i can only do “my own work” and when i will be better i can do work for one – two – three more tanks maybe. But i will never win “alone”, i will never be able to make “15-man platoon”. You want to be sure that if you will be good you will win – play sport that is individual one. For example … basketball is team sport you will never win alone, tennis is individual sport you will win if you alone will be good … Simple is that … WOT is “team sport” you will be always in need of good teammates and you will be from time to time in bad team.

    If someone thinks that he will be less angry when he will have better teammates – he is wrong. If you will have two good teams – one good team NEEDS TO FAIL. Soo what ? Is it really maybe a problem that “i want to win” not “I want to be with good teammates” ?? If you will be ALWAYS in good team against ALWAYS good enemy team you will have 50% win chance. Not 66% what you expect deep inside … …

    The most important argument for me that i want to say to all who are angry about it. You want to be sure who you play with ? Go to Clan Wars, go to tank companies, play always platoon with at least one good player. I never play and i will never play Clan Wars or tank companies (because of work and other real life things that limit me in terms of being “available for we must win this battle tonight in game”) sooo i am learning not to angry when i lost because of teammates. I play only random, mostly alone because platoon mate and friend is not available often. Soo what … ? I am able to have fun and not to fail everytime …

    The most important is mental component. Think always that you are in random matchmaker, online public game. You want this game to be able to constantly improve, you want this game to be known with all advantages of being in known game … you need to accept this. Simple is that. You will not win enough that you want. Soo what ? Who wins enough – in game and in real life ? Accept that you sometimes win and sometimes fail. That is life … Hard but true.

    • Well that is the point of random MM and I can understand why you feel that way. You are a solo player that is making progress and hence you have above 50% WR. Skill MM would not benefit a players like you because that would mean you would meet more equal players and hence your WR would get reduced.

    • There should be 10 classes. Class 1 – totally useless trash, class 10 – statfapping unicocks. Only members from same class should participate in one battle. Classes should be based on personal rating, not number of battles. When platooning, platoon class should be computed as average of all platoon members.

      This is one and only solution to fair battles. But russian cunts doing all what they can to NOT implement this for unknown reasons (more money for them?) and they are presenting various Edrards and other retards with formulas to preach that it is not necessary.

  38. How about this:

    Make the top tier more “reliable”
    I mean, skill MM that make “noobs” less important in a team.
    Reduce the “impact” of “noobs” in a team

    If a “noob” be the top tier, then MM made “more” “normal” players with that noob as top tier

    It may reduce the chance that top tier die so quickly that one team being crushed so easily.

    • The issue with this is that because bad players outnumber good players, the good players would receive good MM far more often than bad players, thus allowing their W/R to inflate drastically as they would almost always be top tier.

      Bad players would, of course, be stuck there, as being bottom tier all the time would limit their opportunities to get better.

      It would create an unhealthy and quite inhospitable environment that would pretty much kill the game.

  39. according to quote the Devs Discussion page on here…

    7% at 47% or less
    77% at 48% to 52%
    16% at 53% & above

    nearly 4/5ths of players are in the “acceptable” middle bracket…

    Have fun trying to justify EXACTLY where the split between “leagues” in that lot….
    …and not pissing off THOUSANDS of paying customers…..

    Never mond how the fck do you promote/demote people from one league to another… no-one ever seems to mention that issue… conveniently swept under the carpet…

    Skill MM will NOT work.

    Give up ffs noobs…

  40. That’s a lot of unnecessary math based on hypothetical numbers. He seems to be arguing that skill-based MM would result in long wait times, but that’s obvious. However, part of what he wrote makes no sense at all.

    “When it comes to the range from bad up to above average players, the distribution of such players is linear… Let’s say we have 1000 players. Of them, 100 are really bad, 800 are bad up to above average, 90 are good and 10 are unicums.”

    What? That makes no sense. Shouldn’t the distribution be comparable to a standard bell curve? When he says the “distribution of such players is linear,” he’s referring to the 800, which should just exclude the tails. That’s not linear.

    • Yeah linear sounds a bit retarded. Probably it’s just a bad translation from russian.

  41. My complaint isn’t about player skill, it’s more about how there are certain factors that will decide a match outcome with 90% accuracy, especially at higher tiers, at least in my experience. Tiers 5-7 battles are usually dictated by who has the most Top Tier Heavies on their team. Tier 8-10 battles typically boil down to either who has the most TDs or who has the most Autoloading tanks. IDK, I guess I’d just like to see MM put the same amount of tanks with comparable roles at the same tier on each team.

  42. One thing that many topics of skill based matchmaking skip over is getting rid of the landslide/steamroll battles and the battle with predetermined outcomes due to very large skill differences.

    In an analysis of over 2,000 solo pub battles, this is what i found:
    Players lose less than 3% of the battles with a greater than 60% XVM chance to win.
    Players win less than 3% of the battles with a less than 40% XVM chance to win.
    the battles outside of the 40-60% chance to win range account for about 30% of the average player’s battles.
    So basically 30% of the average player’s battles have a predetermined result due to the difference in skill between the teams.

    If we could get rid of the battles outside of the XVM 40-60% chance to win range the game play would be more dependent on layer skill and teamwork. Yet it wouldn’t force everyone to have the same win rate.

    • If those numbers are accurate, then this is an excellent idea. Winrate might not change significantly for anyone, and landslide battles would be much less common. How’d you get those numbers?

    • >Players lose less than 3% of the battles with a greater than 60% XVM chance to win.
      >Players win less than 3% of the battles with a less than 40% XVM chance to win.

      Hahaha, good job there, XVM. That is so not how chances are supposed to work. I always found their formulas suspiciously looking like they were pulled out of their asses.

  43. do you know what’s the problem with skill MM? that everyone with a blog that has something to say against skill based MM does not know how skill MM works in the 1st place
    case and point edrard’s reasoning – is completely flawed

  44. Of course all this makes the assumption that skill MM would only have you play matches with people around your skill level. That is an assumption that would obviously unfairly stack the deck against the whole idea of having skill MM. Well, at least I think that’s what it does, it seems to be mostly throwing scary looking math hoping to lend it credibility even though the math here has rather significant problems (for example, in most of it not actually pointing to anything, and sometimes the wrong math being used overall). But anyway…

    What about the other way of having skill MM though, in which you have the matchmaker pick players for the battle the way it does now, but then shifts the players with similar tanks between teams to make the average skill level more balanced? That’s not even considered here at all, and it would make things a lot more fair.

  45. “Based on mathematical expectation, the most probable group you will get is:
    1,5 very bad + 12 bad up to above average + 1.35 above average + 0.15 unicum”

    Yeah, and based on mathematical expectation, most humans have one breast and one testicle

  46. u cant make a skilled MM because of BATTLE TIER and VEHICLE WEIGHT … the most important certainties in the game …that guy Edrard is foolish

  47. a lot of well done and completely useless calculation.

    Why? Cause we all know that “in the long run” it will level out.
    It’s not however how human mind works, human mind looks for patterns and finds them, it also prefers patterns that are more strongly connected to it’s emotions.

    Basically a strong of easy roflstomp victories will always be less memorable then string of roflstomp losses.
    Also Roflstomp victory brings less fun to winners then it brings frustration to losers.
    You can’t eliminate such games (they are a part of the game where eliminating 1 enemy increases your chances to eliminate another) but at least you can mitigate the influence of having bad luck and being in absolutely retarded team.

    Also numbers Edrad used are not really important since there is completely different skill distribution in low tiers and in high tiers, not mentioning that he is using the numbers by number of players not number of battles played (if there is 20% of good players playing 40 battles per day and 80% of bad players playing 10 battles per day then percentages of good/bad players you will meet in battles will not be 20/80).
    But that is not really important, the main point is that game would be much more fun and much less good (greens and blues) players would be still playing if half of the roflstomps were changed into rather equal battles.

  48. Any balancing factor involving skill, any more control in the hands of players in this game, any less “random” factor (25% RNG is more than enuff to hide any manipulation) would make WG have less influence with their rigged, bullshit, cheating, noob-protecting matchfaking system (tailored to maximize profit)….

  49. I think that skill based MM should work … but principle should be FAIR DISTRIBUTION OF IDIOTs.

    My idea is simple.
    When one team has unicum player as top tier they should be balanced with minimally good players on the other side. It’s good when ALL levels of players are mixed together BUT …

    It’s quite annoying when i take a look on teams during battle loading and say “15:5 in 5 minutes” and i am right ..

    Alghoritm shoud be simple. Divide all players let say to 4 groups according to PERSONAL RATING

    0 .. 2000 A, 2001 .. 4000 B, 4001 … 8000 C, 8001+ D

    so teams should be balanced

    Team 1 -> A,A,A,A,A,A,B,B,C,C,D,A,A,A,A
    Team 2 -> A,A,A,A,A,A,B,B,C,C,D,A,A,A,A

    It’s not good when one team is

    14xA + 1xC and other team is 13xC + 1xD + 1xA … battle ends in 3 mins by lose of 15:1 etc ..

    • I am saying this whole fucking time. Split players to classes by their personal rating. So useless cocks will be always playing only with other useless cocks and pathetic statfappers only with other pathetic statfappers.

      The problem is, there are ten times more useless cocks than statfappers so waiting time before battle can be longer.

      • Letting players face equal ones will destroy the current stats players have. In the long run average people facing other averages will have more or less the same stats are unicums facing uniscums. Remember, the curret stats are just because of this random MM and the fact that the few players that are better than 80% of all other players gets WR of 55-70%. You can only have “better” stats by facing majority of worse players and most players are bad.

        If all players that are equal face eachother (50/50% win chance) then it all is up to the RNG, server lag and general luck of the draw who will decide who wins. Some form of unbalance between the teams are needed to obtain the current.

        In other words, you have below 50% WR…skill MM will bring your WR to 50% automaticly no matter how bad you are since there is always 50% win chance no matter if you become better or worse. The side effect will be that those players having above 50% will in the long run get their WR decreased to 50%.

        And this goes for all stats like avr dmg, spotting, pr, assistant dmg, kills, dmg ratio, survival, hit ratio, avr xp, income. These will most likely decrease for good players having skill MM because they no longer have a advantage over the enemies the face.

        The point is, to have above average stats you must play against average to below average players a while and the current MM allows you to do that. Even if the current MM is unbalanced a average to above average player will most likely have consistent results and in the end sepparate him from the 47-48% ers. So yeah players who are progressing in stats will most likely get a slap in the face if skill MM will come.

        Far from all average players strive to just be “average casuals”, everybody can improve and some do succeed. But the amount of people who succeed is still so low that they are rarely seen or heard.

        The people who are stuck in the below to average situation, they are the ones who complain and want skill MM because they think “noob tim” is the reason they are not very good. Point is, in all games most people are not good, its the human nature.

        If you have 10-20k games and are stuck on 48% WR and mediocre stats, then accept it. You are not a brialiant player because all people are made different, not all are made to be superb. You maybe have other good qualities in real life and online gaming might just not be one of them.

        • WHO CARES ABOUT FUCKING STATS??!! I just don’t want to play in team full of useless fags against team full of purple cocksuckers in platoon.
          Stats are numbers that fucked up whole game. Only medals should be there.

          • I would of said it somewhat differently but I concur on your above statement.

            Getting put into teams full of brain dead,window licking tards who seem to think playing with single digit FPS is OK gets frustrating.It gets even more frustrating when the other team is full of Unicum platoons.

            • Letting players face equal ones will destroy the current stats players have.so in your oppinion you will allways put an common guy to fight in boxing game vs myke tyson.strange idea of fairplay you have dude.all your comments are like this one.

              • In random games yes I would do that because the only way for people to have above average stats (wr, dmg, spot, kills, etc.) is fighting the majority (that are average to below average).

                Randoms are not competitive modes like team training and clan wars where there are “special” requirements.

                Fair game in randoms is according to me, simply to not use gold ammo and illegal mods. The rest is fine.

                Some complain about ending up on window licker retard teams, but you have unrealistic demands. When the vast majority of players (80%) are average to below average, of course ALL players will end up on weak teams much more often than they will end up on good teams, because good players are a minority.

                Letting good players face more good players will be a nerf because they wont have any advantage any longer. And speaking like you do its just like forcing good students in school to have more difficult exams than the rest of the students because they studdy harder, and hence because they have tougher exams they will no longer get a good grades as “easily”. How is that fair? You need to rethink your defenition of fairness.

                Any sort of skill MM will be a plain nerf to all above average players and a slight buff for those who are below average.

                I dont get how it can be unfair to simply play better? Its not like better players are such a high amount that they ruin the games. Unicums and superunicums are like what, maybe 1-3 % of the playerbase?

                You have to learn to live with retard and weak players and see the opportunities. If you fail to do that you are a below average player or maybe not a really smart average one.

  50. TL;DR version — “Yes, I know that this game is broken, No, I dont want to have to fix our mess, So I will use math to hide behind like any good politician!”

    Personally, if any of the staff of WG had to actually come up through the ranks of tanks withOUT the help of the company and withOUT the help of clans, they’d get to taste just how severely unbalanced this game is becoming; especially for those not wanting part of any clan. Believe me; once I get my T49 my stats are going to sky rocket.

    Now. In the interest of fairness (a foreign concept to some of the staff over at WG I would wager) I will also say this (and I have said this before) — in a game setup like this, relying on stats for MM wont work. Players like me who avoid getting into clans are going to be lucky if they can maintain a near 50% WR, never mind damage etc; strictly and solely due to the fact that at least 75% of the time you will be the singularly most competent member of your team – but not in a tank to do much about it (IE, grinding through the weak tanks to get to the good tanks). Then, when you factor in utterly atrocious RNG (Play a T30 lately anyone? How about the T25/2 which I am certain got a silent mild nerf last patch), the odds become much more than 15 to 1 against you. Further, in my personal experience, when I DO get players on my team with >53% WR, they are usually the first to bloody well die. Of course, let us not forget the botting problem, and the ever present problems many have with weak comps and/or weak net that drop them out of matches out of the players control.

    Honestly, I think trimming children out of the game might have more of an effect than attempting a stat-based MM. Making the maps selectable would certainly help as well.

    • There are super unciums playing solo with no gold ammo having 65% WR, how do you explain that? In fact there are several people who are unicums and only play solo. There are people who are not unicums but they have 55-60% WR solo as well and shit ton of avr dmg in the tanks.

      Also making players choose the maps would be a disaster because players would only choose those maps that would suit them.

      The RNG in terms of gun handling is not a issue anymore since the shot will go to the center more often, no matter the accuracy. Everybody has the same RNG in the game and while platooning with good players can increase your WR, there are no guarantees it will increase other stats of the tank.

  51. Strange how skill-based mm has been used in games (more popular and successful games than this one) for over a decade and a half, but because someone who knows some basic statistics (judging by the simpleton explanation) flashes some numbers, it can’t work none.

    This is a case study on why, no matter how smart you are: Don’t give input into subjects you don’t grasp.

    • Actually this is a nice example that you can find logical arguments for both “yes” and “no” in any case.

      And why an experiment is always the best way to go.

  52. Skilled MM its not about few unicums. Its about having two teams where one is all red-yellow and second is all green with some blues. First team got like 19% of wining this battle, after 2 minutes there is 0-5, after 4 minutes there is 0-10 and after 5 minutes there is 0-15 (maybe 1-15) and battle ends with everyone in second team having at least +2.000 xp (with x2), while first team got some shit like +50xp, -10.000 credits and just a lost time.

    • Well, all players have the same good luck and bad luck. So the argument that majority of players are weak is not because they end up on “nob tim” all time. On the other hand, if 80% of all players are 48-52% WR players, how do these players expect to end up on good a team all time? Good players are a minority, in all games. All players will end up on weak team alot more often than good teams, because there are alot more bad players than good. And some times yes, it happens that one team has more good players than the other and that is just random.

      How do we solve this? Well nobody can except yourself. Play better and you become above average one day and your all stats will increase. Also remember, for people to earn alot of xp and credits somebody got to lose. Having 50% chance all time to win will be mediocre and a overall nerf to all players performing above average.

      I dont agree that people play mediocre just because their team mates are weak. A strong player will perform good more often that he performs bad no matter the team mates. And it is like that in all games.

  53. another fail retart russian developer fail… they only want ignore comminity demands and dont want better game. because they already gain enough money for votka…

  54. The simplest solution: make 3rd EU server for players seeking “fun” but not “wins”. Make both others (EU1 and EU2) restricted as follow : EU1- players above 5000 personal raiting or 1450 WN8, EU2- players above 8000 personal or above 1700 WN8. Let the “fun” be only for these that are seeking it and let players, who plays for “wins” do that in peace and without tomato factor.

  55. Wrong numbers and a nice move to put the bad players into a box with the average and above average players. In reality those numbers look like this:

    Let’s say we have 1000 players. Of them, 200 are really bad, 200 are bad, 450 are average to above average, 149 are good and 1 is a unicum.
    Based on mathematical expectation, the most probable group you will get is:

    3 very bad + 3 bad + 6.75 average up to above average + 2.235 good + 0.015 unicum

    That means your team mostly consists of:

    3 bots + 3 tomatos + 7 morons + 2 good players + 0.015 unicum. If you are a unicum yourself, then its only 6 morons on average.

    Why do you think a lot of the missions require you to be in the “top 10 by XP” ?

  56. There are some brutal examples in the replies of why people should pay attention in maths class.

    There are very few metrics in WoT which would allow a skill base match maker that would actually work for more than a few weeks, Win Ratio certainly isn’t one of them.

  57. bla blabla

    they called so many things bad ideas, and they ended up in the game anyways.

  58. Skill MM is a just a popular joke. When the user is died he will find something how it happened. Maybe the arty, maybe the td is an op camper noob category, maybe the enemy was unsportsmanlike… The user is NEVER will be bad. ANOTHER players is it! If he die or lost the game means: his team is noob! Pfff…. With skill MM the really good playes can only play with another good players – again a real good enemy team. And the real good persons winrate will be falling down. The good player can be real good player only when another players are worse than he is.

    Another popular misconception: When the team is not doing what we expect of him not the team is noob. We are a noob. If i can’t accommodate the movement of our team -> it is my problem, and i’m a bad player.

    • You are blabbering about accommodating to team with 5030 PR on 26594 battles with 49% WR. Unfortunately you are one of the countless useless dickheads, who are nightmare of any team…

      And why are good players good? Because they are pimping their stats in platoons on useless fags like you, so you are one of the reasons why to implement skill MM.