Source: http://forum.worldoftanks.eu/index.php?/topic/468409-a-1000-battle-study-on-xvm-win-chance-accuracy/
A 1000 Battle Study on XVM Win Chance Accuracy.
Author: Spitfeuer117
Published with author’s permission.
If you have XVM with statistics enabled in it, it will give a ”Chance to win” percentage for the battle. I went on a quest to find out whether you would actually win that battle that many times out of a hundred.
The only way to be sure would be to play the exact same battle thousands of times under the same conditions. Instead, I started to evaluate my win percentages under the battles with the same XVM predictions.
Out of 1000 battles, there were 598 wins, 390 losses and 12 draws. The average XVM prediction was 55%, which seems low compared to the 60% win rate.
By sorting the number of wins, losses and draws into the XVM prediction categories, the following histogram was produced:






